Dictum Ridiculum - March 2005

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Dictum Ridiculum: March 2005

Archived rants and raves from the main page of the Colin Campbell Network.

Tuesday, March 29, 2005
Almost Ready for Opening Day?
Then you're ready for the level of statistical obsessiveness demonstrated on one of my favorite new 'blogs, 6-4-2 -- an Angels/Dodgers double play blog.
Buried among the fairly comprehensive round-up of general interest material about the two Los Angeles (!) baseball teams, you sometimes find a gem of analytical over-obsession:
Now you might argue -- and the Baseball Prospectus crew does -- that the Angels were a bit lucky last year. If you look at their Pythagenport third-order adjusted win/loss record, they should have finished 88-74, with the A's winning the division again at 90-72.
I thought that was perfectly obvious to everyone??? I mean, really, the Pythagenport third-order adjusted win/loss record has long been established as the leading predictive barometer of recursive seasonal win/loss ratio differential, as expressed in the classically simple equation: (GP/GPW)(GAW(x-GRO)/162*(AV/LIW-BS/SA), where:
GP= Games Played
GPW= Games Predicted Won
GAW= Games Actually Won
GRO= Games Rained Out
AV= Anticipated Victories
LIW= Late-Inning Wins (tied or come from behind wins, seventh inning or later)
BS= Blown Saves
SA= Saves Allowed
I mean, that's child's play, right?
Go Dodgers? Or, expressed a different way, (G)*o/2D-o^G=E*RS
On a more serious note... what happened to all the foul territory at Dodger Stadium? Hope Frank McCourt uses the money from those new seats to buy some relief pitching, 'cuz a lot of foul ball outs are going to be out of play, and big league hitters don't need that many extra chances to make an impact.
It's times like this I wish I hadn't given up being a hard-core Dodger fan, so I'd have something to bitch and moan about. As it is, I wish them the best of luck in their new endeavors, and will probably make it to about five games this year; a far cry from my season ticket days.
Still, it'll be good to hear the voice of Vin again.
Transmitted 01:33 AM PST | Link |

Tuesday, March 15, 2005
Blatant Self-Promotion for Wild West Tech: The Road West
But really, what good is a personal website if you can't use it for this purpose? So here's the summary for my latest episode of Wild West Tech on The History Channel:
The Road West was a dangerous path in to the unknown. As pioneers headed toward a new life, they faced unpredictable weather, uneven trails, and sometimes unforgiving Native Americans. Remarkable feats of engineering, such as blasting mile-long tunnels, or building a bridge to span 300 feet across a mighty river, helped tame the frontier. Some inventors turned to technology to create new forms of travel, such as the Wind Wagon, that were very fast ... and very unconventional. In this episode of Wild West Tech, join us to discover the amazing advances made by settlers who used technology to help them on their journey while traveling The Road West.
Ooh, can you hardly wait? Well, you'll only have to wait until next Tuesday, at least, 'cuz this puppy, a Colin Campbell written-and-directed spectacular, premieres Tuesday, March 22nd at 8pm EST/PST (check your local listings).
And for those of you've who've expressed concern over the level of gore in this season's episodes, I'm happy to report that we went easy on the fake blood. Sure, the road West was dangerous, but it wasn't particularly bloody -- at least, not in my episode. I did, however, manage to work in a reference to Dom Deluise, so if you're offended by that sort of thing... beware!
(Oh, and if you happen to be reading this today -- Tuesday, the 15th -- you can still catch the rerun tonight of the controversial and shocking "Freak Show Tech" episode I did earlier this season. End of self-promotion.)
Transmitted 03:03 AM PST | Link |

Thursday, March 10, 2005
Pistol-Packing Kitties
And here we have today's winner of our Headline of the Day contest. From Yahoo! News, I present to you the simple, elegant tale, Cat Shoots Owner:
BATES TOWNSHIP, Mich. - A man cooking in his kitchen was shot after one of his cats knocked his 9mm handgun onto the floor, discharging the weapon, Michigan State Police said.
Mee-Ouch!

Transmitted 09:18 AM PST | Link |

Monday, March 7, 2005
It's All So Clear and Simple!
Social Security "reform," George W. Bush-style? Well, sure, because look at this great argument in favor of the "president's" alleged plan:
From the White House Transcript:
Q: -- really understand how is it the new plan is going to fix that problem?
THE PRESIDENT: Because the -- all which is on the table begins to address the big cost drivers. For example, how benefits are calculate, for example, is on the table; whether or not benefits rise based upon wage increases or price increases. There's a series of parts of the formula that are being considered. And when you couple that, those different cost drivers, affecting those -- changing those with personal accounts, the idea is to get what has been promised more likely to be -- or closer delivered to what has been promised.
Does that make any sense to you? It's kind of muddled. Look, there's a series of things that cause the -- like, for example, benefits are calculated based upon the increase of wages, as opposed to the increase of prices. Some have suggested that we calculate -- the benefits will rise based upon inflation, as opposed to wage increases. There is a reform that would help solve the red if that were put into effect. In other words, how fast benefits grow, how fast the promised benefits grow, if those -- if that growth is affected, it will help on the red.
Oh, I get it! Not only do you not really have a plan to "save" Social Security, but you can't explain what the problem is to begin with, because you're borderline mentally incompetent. Thanks for clearing that up...
Transmitted 11:38 AM PST | Link |

Saturday, March 5, 2005
Famous Last Words
And here's possibly the most ironic quote from the "chimp bites man" story...
"Animals bite, people bite, Mike Tyson bites. So what?"
--St. James Davis, discussing a 1999 incident in which his chimpanze Moe, an animal he had rescued, bit off the finger of a woman visiting his West Covina home. While visiting the chimp at a sanctuary this week, Davis was attacked by two other chimps, who bit off most of his nose and his testicles.
Ouch!
Transmitted 01:36 AM PST | Link |

Thursday, March 3, 2005
It's About Baseball... and So Much More
So, John Sickels wrote about his time working with baseball stats guru Bill James in an article called Luck, Fate, or Providence. When I read the following bit of insight, it struck me that it could apply to so much more than simply the statistical analysis of baseball.
If there is one thing that working with Bill taught me, it was to not reject something just because it does not fit into your preconceived notions. If you find a piece of information that doesn't fit into your system, make sure that the problem isn't your system.
People wonder why some of us believe baseball isn't just life, it's more than life. Wonder no more.
Hey, baseball is almost back! It's March, it's supposed to stop raining any day now, I have no dobut the days are going to be getting longer, and warmer, and brighter...
I am SOOOO ready for spring. You know, 'cuz it's a time of renewal and all.
Yay, Spring!
Transmitted 10:47 PM PST | Link |

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