No web trickery involved here, I promise.  This is being posted late Tuesday night, August 22nd, 2000.  I have no idea who wins on “Survivor,” but here’s my guess.

It’s got to be Susan.

Here’s why:

First off, she’s likely to win an immunity challenge in the clutch.  I don’t know why she hasn’t won any of the recent immunity challenges, other than, she hasn’t needed to do so.  Ah, the benefits of being a rock-solid member of the evil Tagi alliance.

And second off, she “matches up” well with the other finalists in the final vote.  If you were a member of the “Survivor” jury, whom would you rather give the million dollars to?  If the choices were Susan or Richard?  Susan or Rudy?  Susan or Kelly?  I think Susan, with her plain talk and non-backstabbing image, wins each one.

Let’s run down a few of the other possible match-ups:

Kelly vs. Richard – Probably Kelly.  Wait; definitely Kelly.

Kelly vs. Rudy – Hell, I think they’d give it to Rudy, since Kelly played both sides.  Nobody likes a traitor.

Richard vs. Rudy – A very real possibility, given their closeness.  However, I think Rudy will be voted off next if he doesn’t win an immunity challenge.  And there is no way Richard is winning.

Here’s the chart:
 
 

I just can’t see a jury giving Richard the money; that’s the one part of his strategy that I think he forgot about.  If you’re going to be a complete bastard, and expect people to give you money for it, then you really are psycho.

So, all Susan has to do to win the million, in my opinion, is make it to the final two.

But what if ... gasp ... Richard and Rudy team up to vote her off, as they’ve discussed?

Um ... then Rudy gets it.

Unless Richard plays the “forgiveness” and “I caught you all that fish” cards ... but who’s going to fall for it?

So, there you have it.  My predicted likelihood of winning:  Susan, Rudy, Kelly (depending on immunity challenge outcomes), and finally, with no chance in Hell, Rich.

Of course, I could be wrong.  But then, there’s always “Big Brother.”  Let’s see, now.  The stripper is already gone, and so’s the whiny mother ...

Link:

http://www.cbs.com/survivor/